A new industry paper said the US housing market may shift from years of scarcity toward fewer buyers, as household formation slows over coming years.
Starting in 2030, deaths are projected to outnumber births, meaning population growth could weaken without stronger immigration or other support for household demand.
Affordability remains the biggest constraint: many younger adults still cannot buy, and current mortgage rates in the mid-6% range are far above pandemic lows.
An industry forecast projects national home price growth near ~1% in 2026, then flat prices over the following two years as demand cools.
That leaves a mixed US outlook: builders are reassessing long-term demand, yet lower- and middle-income households still face too few attainable homes.