Inside the 2026 housing market outlook: Key trends shaping homebuilders, capital and strategy

The 2026 housing market faces challenges from consumer hesitation amid macroeconomic uncertainty, despite stable long-term fundamentals. Affordability remains a key issue, with home prices 21% above norms and mortgage rates expected to stay high through 2027. Builders adopt varied strategies, focusing on operational efficiency and flexible financing as land supply and costs shift. Innovation and demographic trends support eventual recovery, pending improved buyer confidence.

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MTSU: Tennessee’s housing market shows mixed but stable conditions

Tennessee's housing market showed stable but mixed conditions in Q4 2025, with home prices rising 0.7% quarterly and 3% annually statewide. Some metros like Jackson, Johnson City, and Kingsport-Bristol saw strong quarterly price growth, while Clarksville, Knoxville, and Morristown experienced slight declines. Construction permits strengthened, and annual price gains were positive across all metros, with Morristown leading at 6.4%.

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Tennessee’s Best Retirement Towns Ranked

Tennessee retirement towns balance affordable housing, healthcare, and activities. Maryville offers mountain access with higher home prices. Crossville and Cookeville provide plateau settings and moderate costs. Jonesborough features historic charm and storytelling culture. Greeneville has presidential historic sites. Paris offers lake access, Winchester surrounds Tims Ford Lake, Morristown is the most affordable, and Cleveland boasts outdoor recreation near the Ocoee River.

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New-Home Mortgage Demand Hit 14-Yr High

New-home purchase applications in Late-Q1 ↑26% MoM and ↑11% yearly, reaching the survey’s highest index level since it began in 2012.
Estimated new single-family sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 717K in Late-Q1, ↑12% from 641K in the prior month.
On an unadjusted basis, estimated new-home sales reached 69K in Late-Q1, ↑21% from 57K in the prior month.
Avg. new-home loan size edged down from ~$384K to ~$382K between the prior month and Late-Q1.
Loan mix in Late-Q1:
Conventional 49.1%
FHA 36.3%
VA 13.4%
RHS/USDA 1.2%
Government-backed loans made up >50% of applications for a third straight month, as FHA rates rose more slowly than conforming loans.
Higher unsold inventory in many US markets, including move-in-ready homes, helped support buyer activity despite rising rates and greater economic uncertainty.